Is Alabama out of the playoffs? How Iron Bowl win vs. Auburn could help Crimson Tide in improbable CFP chase

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After falling to Oklahoma last week, Alabama's playoff chances took a massive hit, pushing the squad down to No. 13 in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings.

Crunch time for teams to build their playoff résumés has arrived, and the Crimson Tide's loss came at a critical time. The committee will make its final decisions for the bracket on Dec. 8.

On Saturday though, head coach Kalen DeBoer's squad will face Auburn in the Iron Bowl to conclude its regular season schedule in Alabama's final shot at improving its playoff outlook.

Could the Crimson Tide still sneak into the first 12-team playoff by beating Auburn on Saturday? Here's a look at Alabama's position in the playoff race and how it could still get into the bracket.

MORE: SEC championship game scenarios, explained

Is Alabama out of the playoffs?

Alabama fell 24-3 to Oklahoma last week, the team's third loss of the season. With losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee also in its past, it's tough to make a case for the Crimson Tide to be a playoff squad right now.

However, that doesn't mean Alabama doesn't have an outside shot. Any last chances for DeBoer's team would have to start with a win over Auburn on Saturday; another loss would make the Crimson Tide 8-4 with losses to three unranked opponents, far too many to argue that the team should make the playoff.

Had Alabama beat Oklahoma last week, its path to the CFP, and to the SEC championship game, would have been a lot simpler. Now, quarterback Jalen Milroe & Co. will likely need some outside help on top of a win over Auburn.

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Alabama playoff scenarios

As previously mentioned, Alabama's path to the playoff absolutely begins with a win over the Tigers in Week 14. From there, the team would need some help with upset losses for some of the rest of the current projected playoff teams.

In the earlier slate of Saturday games, the Crimson Tide would be rooting for Vanderbilt to upset No. 8 Tennessee, although the Volunteers held a 31-17 advantage in the third quarter of that game. Elsewhere, there's some complicated outcomes if South Carolina is able to beat Clemson, which claimed the No. 12 spot in the last CFP rankings.

Alabama has a head-to-head win over South Carolina, so even if the Gamecocks beat Clemson, there's a scenario where they remain behind the Crimson Tide in the rankings. A lot of Alabama's playoff scenarios could come down to the opinion of the CFP committee.

Miami losing to Syracuse or Notre Dame falling to USC could also help Alabama back into the rankings, although that would be just the second loss for both of those squads. The same could be said for potential upset losses for SMU against Cal or Indiana against Purdue.

At this point, the Crimson Tide will need current projected playoff teams to lose in order to claim an open spot. The chances aren't high for Alabama — but this is college football, so anything could happen.

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College Football Playoff rankings 2024

Who are the top 12 teams in latest CFP bracket poll? (November 26)

RankingTeamCurrent Record
1.Oregon11-0
2.Ohio State10-1
3.Texas10-1
4.Penn State10-1
5.Notre Dame10-1
6.Miami10-1
7.Georgia10-2
8.Tennessee9-2
9.SMU10-1
10.Indiana10-1
11.Boise State11-1
12.Clemson*9-2

*Despite being ranked No. 12, Clemson is projected to miss the 12-team field in favor of Arizona State, who is the projected Big 12 champion.

First four teams out

RankingTeamCurrent Record
13.Alabama8-3
14.Ole Miss9-3
15.South Carolina8-3
16.Arizona State*9-2

*Arizona State is projected to make the 12-team field as the Big 12 champion

Rest of the top 25

RankingTeamCurrent Record
17.Tulane9-3
18.Iowa State9-2
19.BYU9-2
20.Texas A&M8-3
21.Missouri8-3
22.UNLV9-2
23.Illinois8-3
24.Kansas State8-3
25.Colorado9-3
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